No 1 - Alabama Crimson Tide 2010 Preview

Saturday, September 04, 2010

by Aengus Moorehead

No 1 - Alabama Crimson Tide 2010 Preview - Greg McElroy

Last season was truly a dream year for the Alabama Crimson Tide. After a high-profile victory over Virginia Tech on opening night, the Tide rolled through their schedule on the strength of one of the country’s best running offenses. They were so dominant that they wrapped up their 2nd straight division title in early November! After finishing their 2nd consecutive undefeated regular season with a comeback victory at archrival Auburn, Alabama Crimson Tide absolutely dominated Florida in the SEC Championship Game to earn a shot at the National Title.

However, one other major achievement came before they played for all the marbles. Sophomore tailback Mark Ingram won the Heisman Trophy and in doing so, he became the first member of the Alabama Crimson Tide to ever win the stiff armed trophy. It is truly incredible that it took over 80 years for the most famous trophy in college sports to come to Tuscaloosa, but Ingram’s campaign was well deserving of the honor.

2009 Results: 14-0, Won National Championship, SEC Champions
Head Coach: Nick Saban (4th year, 33-8 @ Bama, 124-50-1 Overall)
Home Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium (92,138) Tuscaloosa, Alabama

The season concluded with a showdown with undefeated Texas in the Rose Bowl for the National Championship, a venue that held particularly special meaning for the Tide faithful. Although the Rose Bowl is mentioned in the school’s fight song, it was the first time that Alabama had played in Pasadena since 1945. As for the game itself, an early injury to Texas’ superstar quarterback Colt McCoy gave the Tide the chance to build up a big lead and they held on for the school’s first National Title in seventeen years.

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This team has some serious issues to address while dealing with the added burden of expectations as the preseason #1 selection and the sexy choice to defend their championship. But with a completely rebuilt defense, a brutal schedule and an agent scandal surrounding defender Marcell Dareus hitting the program, it will certainly be far more difficult than the average fan seems to realize. Can Nick Saban galvanize his team and lead them to their 3rd consecutive SEC West Championship?

Alabama was really a throwback last season. They had two ridiculously effective tailbacks that pounded the ball behind one of the best offensive lines in the country and rode that running game to 32 points per game on the scoreboard. Even better, both runners are back again this season. Junior Ingram (1,658 rush yards, 32 catches, 334 receiving yards, 20 total TDs) was the Heisman Trophy winner while sophomore Trent Richardson (751 yards, 8 TDs) was named a 1st Team Freshman All-American. Expect these two to continue their dominant ways this season and they are the best tandem of runners in the entire country.

Unfortunately, the offensive line is going to be somewhat diminished this fall. 1st Team All-American guard Mike Johnson and two year starting tackle Drew Davis will both be sorely missed after dominating seasons in 2009. That also means that Bama has lost three 1st Team All-American linemen in the past two seasons! On the other hand, senior tackle James Carpenter was a 2nd Team All-SEC selection last year and sophomore guard Barrett Jones was a Freshman All-American, so this will be a reloaded line.

But it would be remiss to continue ignoring starting quarterback Greg McElroy (2,508 yards, 17 TDs, 4 INT), who has never lost a game as a starter in high school or college. He did a fantastic job of protecting the football last season, a key part of the success in Alabama’s strategy of ball control and field position. He was also devastating throwing the ball off of play action and his senior leadership makes him a strong possibility to be selected as a captain this year. Needless to say, Greg McElroy is one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC.

The final aspect of the returning Bama offense is at wide receiver, where junior Julio Jones (43 catches, 596 yards, 4 TDs) is widely considered one of the most athletic pass catchers in the country. Don’t let the unimpressive numbers fool you: Playing in a run-first attack gives him fewer chances to catch the football but he is a physical mismatch with elite speed that can get behind a defense with ease. On top of that, he was injured last fall, so his numbers weren’t as strong as they were the year before. Expect him to form a talented tandem with classmates Marquis Maze (31 catches, 523 yards, 2 TDs) and Brandon Gibson and if Jones is healthy then the passing game could be a lot more effective this season.

Alabama’s offense won’t look much different from the unit that powered their championship run last fall. They still have the undefeated quarterback, they still have the best tandem of runners in the country, they still have the deep threat at receiver and they still have a strong offensive line. One wonders whether this O-Line will be able to impose their will like last season’s group did at key times, but that seems like nit-picking in the grand scheme of things. Assuming this group remains healthy, the Tide should chew up a ton of clock and run for a ton of yards this season. This is one of the most dangerous offenses in the SEC.

Alabama suffered a serious talent drain during the offseason as only one full-time defensive starter from last year’s team is back. However, that truly doesn’t define the scope of their losses. The defense lost two 1st round draft picks, two 2nd round draft picks and two 7th round draft picks and that’s just the departures after last season. On top that incredible exodus of skill, safety Robbie Green (who was considered a co-starter by the staff) was suspended by the NCAA for the season in February for unspecified reasons, leaving the Tide razor thin at the back end.

Finally, junior defensive end Marcell Dareus (33 tackles, 6.5 sacks) was declared ineligible in July after reports surfaced that he was part of the infamous South Beach agent party that hit North Carolina the hardest. His punishment hasn’t been announced, but any time missed by a potential All-American and surefire early draft pick is just another crushing blow. Can the Tide manage to overcome the most lost talent of any defense in America and reload this year?

The D-Line in Alabama’s 3-4 defense was anchored by mammoth nose tackle Terrance Cody, a 1st Team All-American in 2009, for the last two seasons and he was the foundation for Alabama’s exceptional run defense. His replacement, junior Josh Chapman (17 tackles) is nowhere near as monstrous and will not dominate the middle of the line in the same fashion, but he should still be an effective starter in Cody’s place this fall. However, the loss of Dareus is particularly difficult for the Tide as the defensive ends are extremely inexperienced without him.

Things look a little bit brighter at linebacker, though the Tide will sorely miss SEC Defensive Player of the Year Rolando McClain, who was a 1st round pick in April. At middle linebacker, sophomore Dont'a Hightower was a starter last fall before tearing his ACL in the 4th game of the season, allowing him to redshirt. He was a Freshman All-American in 2008 and should be a star this fall if he doesn’t show any ill effects from the injury. Sophomore Nico Johnson (28 tackles) also played extensively last year after Hightower’s injury and the two of them will form a very capable set in the middle. On the outside, junior Courtney Upshaw (15 tackles, 1 sack) will take one of the starting roles and I expect him to be an effective player immediately after impressing in the spring. While the other spot is going to be up for grabs, Bama fans should feel confident that this will be a solid group of ‘backers. However, their inexperience will be a concern early as the entirely new front seven will take a little while to gel.

But where Alabama Crimson Tide should be most concerned is in the secondary. Three draft picks are gone from this unit and their starting cornerbacks were both taken in the first two rounds. A double whammy comes from the departure of corner Javier Arenas, who was one of the country’s best kick returners. The only bright spot is the lone returning starter on the entire defense, junior safety Mark Barron (76 tackles, 7 INT), a 3rd Team All-American in 2009 and a great piece to build the new pass defense around. Unfortunately, the Alabama Crimson Tide is extremely young around him and everyone else in the entire secondary could be freshmen and sophomores. That’s not to say that they aren’t going to be talented, as Saban has brought in some of the country’s best athletes since arriving in Tuscaloosa, but losing three cornerbacks in the NFL draft and then replacing them with underclassmen seems like a recipe for failure. Needless to say, I am extremely concerned about the defensive backs, especially in the early going.

Simply put, this is a completely rebuilt defense and it will be very difficult to predict how successful they will be this fall. While a few players (Hightower, Barron, Johnson) have played extensively in the last two seasons, the vast majority of this group will be playing extensively for the first time in college. With such youth on hand, the Tide really couldn’t afford to lose either Green or Dareus, much less both and that will come back to haunt them. While the talent on hand will be enough to ensure a solid defensive showing, don’t expect this group to approach the excellence of the last two years.

Another factor that really works against Alabama Crimson Tide is their schedule. After an easy opening game against San Jose State at home, they have a brutal five game stretch that features trips to Duke, Arkansas and South Carolina while hosting Penn State and Florida. No team in the entire country outside of perhaps Miami will be more challenged by the halfway mark. While Penn State isn’t expected to contend in the Big Ten this fall, the Nittany Lions are still a very talented team. On top of that, the trip to Duke will be Bama’s first true road trip to a BCS Conference opponent since 2002.

After the brutal first half, the Alabama Crimson Tide has trips to LSU and Tennessee on tap in the second half. However, they’re also the victim of one of the strangest scheduling quirks. Alabama Crimson Tide plays six conference opponents who have off weeks before playing them. That means that every SEC foe except Arkansas and Florida will have two weeks to prep for the defending champs, putting the Tide at a huge disadvantage. Finally, the presence of strong passing teams like Arkansas, Florida and even Duke will be significant early tests for the youthful secondary. This is a really tough schedule.

A lot of people are automatically assuming that the Alabama Crimson Tide is a shoo-in to play for the SEC Championship this fall. Let’s hold our horse shall wee? While the offense is still going to be a powerful force, that’s only one half of the game and no reasonable person can suggest that Alabama’s defense is anything but diminished from last season’s exceptional unit. Now, let’s not assume that Bama is suddenly going to turn into Kentucky on defense, but this looks a lot more like a middle of the pack crew than an elite one, especially without Green and Dareus. While the talent is definitely there to produce a top flight defense, this group will need this season to develop.

On top of that, the schedule couldn’t be much tougher. Penn State and their solid running game will be the first real test of Alabama’s new defense and other factors such as the two schools’ shared history and the Big Ten-SEC rivalry could play into one of the country’s marquee interleague games.

But the game that has the most trouble written all over it is the September 25th visit to Arkansas to face the SEC’s best passing game. Hog QB Ryan Mallett is a likely 1st round selection who returns virtually every weapon that was at his disposal last fall, when Arky had the SEC’s highest-scoring offense. With a much-improved defense, the Razorbacks will have some success stopping the Alabama Crimson Tide offense and that will open the window for an upset. Bama’s young secondary will be unable to slow the high-flying passing game of Arkansas (especially if Dareus is still suspended and unable to get after the quarterback) and that will be their first regular season loss since 2007.

PREDICTED RESULT: 10-2 (6-2 SEC) - Bodog NCAA College Football Futures Lines

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alabama crimson tide - barrett jones - brandon gibson - bryant-denny stadium - colt mccoy - courtney upshaw - donta hightower - drew davis - greg mcelroy - heisman trophy

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